Our Favorite Picks

1. Justin Herbert @ KC - 285 passing yards - UNDER  (Jared)

Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes will be billed as an offensive shootout... but there are some compelling reasons to think otherwise. Thursday Night games are often sloppier and slower than you'd expect - and the first "short week" of the year shouldn't help either. The Chargers are a West Coast team coming east, which is often a tough ask. Keenan Allen is out, leaving a host of relatively unproven targets for the Chargers. Put it all together, and we see a strong possibility Herbert stays under 285 passing yards, as he did in last week's win.

2. Justin Herbert vs KC - 0.5 INTs - OVER  (Jared)

Similar logic applies here, plus this: in his 33 career starts, Herbert has thrown at least one interception in 19 of them, including 11 of 17 last year. Herbert isn't afraid to make tough throws, and you shouldn't be afraid to pick the over here this week.

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs LAC - 45.5 rushing yards - OVER  (Jared)

4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs LAC - 68.5 rushing & receiving yards - OVER (Jared)

Sure, Clyde Edwards-Helaire only rushed for 42 yards in last week's blowout win... but 9 of his 10 touches came in the first half before the Chiefs got up big and pulled him. If this game stays close, expect CEH to get much more volume in the second half instead of backup rookie Isaih Pacheco. The Chargers aren't quite the run-funnel defense they were last year, but they gave up 5.7 yards per carry to Josh Jacobs last week, and we think Clyde can get over 45 without needing a huge uptick in volume.

5. DeAndre Carter vs KC - 9.5 fantasy points - UNDER  (Jared)

Carter seems like classic week 1 fool's gold. His fantasy numbers look pretty good based on a 23-yard touchdown catch last week, but it's unlikely he scores another TDs without seriously upping his paltry 4 targets from last week. Keenan Allen is out, sure, but the Chargers have plenty of options to spread the ball around, and we'd be comfortable taking the under here.